Economic Forecast Up Thanks to Oil, But All Other Areas Struggling – VOCM

Posted: November 5, 2019 at 11:49 pm

The provinces economic forecast is looking promising for 2020, but outside the oil industry all is not rosy.

Thats according to APECs Economic Forecast for the Atlantic region, released yesterday.

Newfoundland and Labradors real GDP is expected to rebound by 2.7 per cent in 2019, led by stronger oil production and mining. For 2020, APEC is forecasting 2.4 per cent real GDP growth, as oil production is expected to increase by 9 per cent.

Capital investment meanwhile is expected to improve by 16 per cent in 2019. the first growth since 2015, with a further 4 per cent advance in 2020.

Despite growth in the oil industry, the rest of the economy of Newfoundland and Labrador continues to struggle. Employment is up 1.4 per cent over the first nine months of the year, but has fallen by 8,000 since peaking.

Outmigration continues to be an issue, weakening the local labour force. The population fell by over 8,000 people since it peaked in late 2016.

Retail sales are down nearly 2 per cent in the first seven months of the year, while the housing market is also suffering from outmigration according to APEC. The sale price of existing homes is down by 4 per cent in the first nine months of 2019.

9 per cent growth in oil production will be somewhat muted as Terra Nova production is scheduled to be offline for six to seven months in 2020 as its drilling vessel undergoes an asset life extension. APEC is also expecting employment to drop slightly in 2020 as work on Muskrat Falls winds down.

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Economic Forecast Up Thanks to Oil, But All Other Areas Struggling - VOCM

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